Chase Analysis S9

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Chase Analysis S9 Empty Chase Analysis S9

Post by nhood53 on August 6th 2018, 12:23 pm

The 16 drivers going for the championship are:
57, 96, 06, 77, 30, 50, 27, 90, 05, 38, 34, 20, 58, 69, 78, 3
Further look into these drivers:
57- Kendall has by far been one of the most consistent drivers on the grid. She comes in with a 50+ point lead in the normal points standings over Benoit Lothaire-Irvine and has held a lead of over a race since round 20. While she has not won a race yet since Season 3, she still has a chance to go far given her performance thus far.
96- Lothaire Irvine has only won 1 race this season during our road course stretch but has been inside the top 15 in points all season and currently sits second. While his lack of wins puts him at a disadvantage, he still, just like Kendall, has been very consistent and looks to continue that consistency to go far in the Chase.
06- While Jarvi Lethinen has had bouts of success throughout the season, his recent performance has been down, he will need to pick up the pace.
77- Scott Roush, the Richard Petty of CTRS. Has the most wins this season at 2 and comes into the Chase off a mediocre run at Phoenix. Having 2 wins on 1.5 mile tracks really bodes well for Roush as the Chase this year is predominantly 1.5 mile tracks.
30- Sky Lukewalker got two wins back to back early in the season at Daytona and California. He did not get another top 10 until Watkins Glen's 2nd date and barely snuck into eligibility edging out Aidan Shepherd for 30th. While his runs recently have been stellar enough to get him into the top 30, that run of success may run out for Sky just as it did after California.
50- Hunter snuck into the Chase on points. While she has not won she does still have the ability to.
27- Moss got a win at Rockingham NC to break a very long winless drought. He has had success with the Chase format in the past, coming up just a few laps short of the Top 4 in Season 7 and doing the same again after making the S8 Chase on points.
90- Brenna Carmichael is also not the strongest car out there. Her one win at New Hampshire was in a wreckfest race in which she was only one of 4 on the lead lap. She shocked us last season by almost winning the title, could she do it again?
05- McF started out the season well, then slacked off mid season, however a win at Miller Utah got her some regained momentum and confidence. Of late she has had issues, so does that mean an early exit for Lexi?
38 & 34- WestFall comes in as one of the most powerful teams in the series. While a championship for these guys would certainly be a David v. Goliath ending to the season, we have seen that these two have been very strong throughout the season, the team had the most straight line speed of any team in preseason testing, and the team has certainly not lost any of that strength.
20- Was the points leader, however due to a severe injury after the Charlotte event was forced to sit out for 6 races. He came back and was by far the fastest car on the grid, he has won twice in the last 8 races and he might be the favorite to back up his Season 2 championship. (OOC wonder what it is about drivers coming back from injury, Shepperd did it last season too)
58- Ike Gonzalez started off the season with back to back top 10 finishes including a win at Eurospeedway. He has been a consistent presence at the front all season, however an injury after a hard crash at Iowa may have knocked him off his game. They rushed his recovery so he could run in the Chase opener, so no one is sure if he is actually ready to return to the track.
69- Shepperd backed up his Pocono win last season with another win at Portland. Coming into the season we expected ClimberTech to be the top team once again but that has not really been the case, as they appeared strong early but lost ground in development later in the season.
78- Deb has had two consecutive two-win seasons, many people thinks she is the odds-on favorite to win the championship given her track record at Sonoma. Expect her to be a contender throughout.
3- Surprise winner at Iowa. I don't think she has a fighting chance to make it out of the early rounds.

My Predictions: (OOC I already know who the champion is, they know too, this prediction is not based on any "future" knowledge)
Round 1 Eliminated: 90, 3, 58, 50
Round 2 Eliminated: 30, 06, 69, 57
Round 3 Eliminated: 77, 38, 05, 27
Final Four: 78, 34, 96, 20
Eliminated Round 4: 34, 96, 78
Champion: #20 Charlie Jackson (

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Chase Analysis S9 Empty Re: Chase Analysis S9

Post by Tigerman on August 7th 2018, 1:04 pm

My prediction is Ike Gonzalez.
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Chase Analysis S9 Empty Re: Chase Analysis S9

Post by nhood53 on August 25th 2018, 9:15 am

Round 27 of Indianapolis:
Pretty bad race marred by multiple big ones that left only 14 cars on track.
Non Charter Race:
1. 52
2. 98
3. 41
4. 23
5. 32
6. 82
7. 59
8. 88
9. 48
10. 76
11, 0
12. 37
13. 33
14. 14
15. 72
16. 99
17. 51
18. 91
Charter Race: Charlie Jackson advances to Round 2.
1. 20 45
2. 07 81
3. 32 10
4. 10
5. 1 4
6. 41 Biggest Mover Award
7. 69
8. 34 9
9. 47
10. 43
11. 40 10
12. 79 1
13. 29
14. 02
15. 27
16. 65
17. 23
18. 2
19. 90
20. 53
21. 3
22. 49
23. 46
24. 70
25. 96
26. 38
27. 11
28. 80
29. 60
30. 06
31. 78
32. 24
33. 58
34. 45
35. 30
36. 52
37. 05
38. 82
39. 50
40. 98
41. 77
42. 57
Chase Pts:
1. 20 Adv
2. 69 7
3. 34 8
4. 27 15
5. 90 19
6. 3 21
7. 96 25
8. 38 26
9. 06 30
10. 78 31
11. 58 33
12. 30 35
13. 05 37
14. 50 39
15. 77 41
16. 57 42

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Chase Analysis S9 Empty Re: Chase Analysis S9

Post by nhood53 on September 16th 2018, 7:46 pm

Round 28 of Daytona
Top 6 Non Charter Race: 33, 76, 14, 99, 91, 72
Results: Sally Hunter takes her first win of the season and will advance to Round 2.
1. 50 9
2. 1 25
3. 53 11
4. 38 9
5. 30
6. 24 8
7. 07 2
8. 33 5
9. 76 5
10. 05
11. 79
12. 78 2
13. 27 2
14. 11 12
15. 06 3
16. 47 6
17. 77 9
18. 58 2
19. 49 9
20. 99
21. 70 9
22. 10 2
23. 20 3
24. 49 1
25. 72
26. 91
27. 02 6
28. 57
29. 2 4
30. 45
31. 69 3
32. 80
33. 65
34. 29 5
35. 90 2
36. 60
37. 46 2
38. 14
39. 34
40. 43
41. 3 3
42. 96 1
Breaks record: Most Lead Changes in Season 9 (95)
3 cars retired from the race (43, 3, 96)
No cautions
Chase Pts:
1. 20 Adv
2. 50 Adv
3. 27 28
4. 38 30
5. 69 38
6. 30 40
7. 78 43
8. 06 45
9. 34 47
10. 05 47
11. 58 51
12. 90 54
13. 77 58
14. 3 62
15. 96 67
16. 57 70

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Chase Analysis S9 Empty Re: Chase Analysis S9

Post by nhood53 on October 5th 2018, 11:16 am

Round 29- Coca Cola
Non Charter Top 6: 52,48,76,33,82,14
Key Chaser moments:
Lap 14: Sally Hunter, Tommy Roberts, Ike Gonzalez involved in crash with Garrison and Stucolé.
Lap 49: Jake Moss blows up car 27. The lap 14 incident has completely erased all hope for Ike Gonzalez to advance.
Lap 110: Huge crash! Takes out McFarland, Bunnell, and Sheppard.
Lap 133: Jarvi Lethinen blows up the 06. The 90 of Carmichael has damage and is far off the pace and many laps down, same for H. Stucolé.

Results:
1. 14
2. 2
3. 20
4. 30
5. 96
6. 57
7. 34
8. 11
9. 65
10. 07
11. 77
12. 02
13. 52
14. 45
15. 60
16. 82
17. 47
18: 3
19. 46
20. 10
21. 90
22. 80
23. 06
24. 69
25. 70
26. 78
27. 05
28. 53
29. 24
30. 76
31 33
32. 48
33. 29
34. 27
35. 49
36. 40
37. 1
38. 38
39. 58
40. 79
41. 50
42. 43

Chase Pts:
1. 20 Adv
2. 50 Adv
3. 30 44
4. 34 54
5. 27 62
6. 69 62
7. 38 68
8. 06 68
9. 78 69
10. 77 69
11. 96 72
12. 05 74
13. 90 75 OUT
14. 57 76 OUT
15. 3 80 OUT
16. 58 90 OUT

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Chase Analysis S9 Empty Re: Chase Analysis S9

Post by nhood53 on October 18th 2018, 9:58 pm

Rounds 30 and 31
Non Charter Top 6: 82,41,23,32,59,88
1. 45
2. 29
3. 34
4. 65
5. 96
6. 27
7. 30
8. 3
9. 41
10. 10
11. 69
12. 47
13. 06
14. 43
15. 2
16. 07
17. 77
18. 49
19. 82
20. 88
21. 90
22. 59
23. 05
24. 23
25. 11
26. 40
27. 80
28. 46
29. 32
30. 1
31. 79
32. 38
33. 58
34. 57
35. 70
36. 20
37. 50
38. 60
39. 24
40. 02
41. 53
42. 78
Chasers with issues: 78 (crash lap 10), 50 (engine), 20 (engine), 38 (crash damage)

Round 31
Non Charter Top 6: 51,99,14,23,0,88
Race: H. Stucolé takes the win from the ailing Eli Bright on the last lap.
1. 3
2. 69
3. 58
4. 47
5. 0
6. 90
7. 49
8. 29
9. 53
10. 06
11. 79
12. 43
13. 38
14. 99
15. 77
16. 24
17. 14
18. 27
19. 88
20. 51
21. 10
22. 45
23. 78
24. 80
25. 60
26. 07
27. 20
28. 11
29. 46
30. 40
31. 1
32. 02
33. 34
34. 50
35. 23
36. 70
37. 96
38. 2
39. 57
40. 05
41. 65
42. 30
Chasers with issues: 30 (engine), 05 (crash), 96 (crash), 50 (engine), 34 (engine), 20 (got lapped on speed)
Points (no one is locked in yet)
69 13
06 23
27 24
77 32
34 36
96 42
38 45
30 49
20 63
05 63
78 65
50 71

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Chase Analysis S9 Empty Re: Chase Analysis S9

Post by nhood53 on October 28th 2018, 5:14 pm

Round 32 of Texas
Non Charter Top 6: 76,0,23,52,37,14
Charter Results: Christian Merrick Jr makes a last lap pass on Moss to win at Texas and protect his charter.
1. 49
2. 65
3. 76
4. 34
5. 78
6. 45
7. 90
8. 29
9. 52
10. 53
11. 1
12. 58
13. 10
14. 20
15. 69
16. 14
17. 38
18. 07
19. 0
20. 50
21. 2
22. 96
23. 24
24. 02
25. 30
26. 06
27. 11
28. 37
29. 70
30. 79
31. 3
32. 43
33. 57
34. 23
35. 05
36. 80
37. 47
38. 77
39. 60
40. 27
41. 46
42. 40
Chase Results!
69 28
34 40
06 49
38 62
27 64
96 64
77 70
78 70
30 74 eliminated
20 77 eliminated
50 91 eliminated
05 98 eliminated

Remaining Chasers: Sheppard #69, Anderson #34, Lethinen #06, Roberts #38, Moss #27, Lothaire-Irvine #96, Roush #77, Bruneil #78

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Chase Analysis S9 Empty Re: Chase Analysis S9

Post by nhood53 on November 6th 2018, 2:28 pm

Rounds 33 and 34
Talladega:
Top 6 Non Charter: 82,72,98,99,59,41
Results- Kevin Anderson edges teammate Tommy Roberts to win at Dega.
1. 34
2. 38
3. 65
4. 40
5. 10
6. 05
7. 3
8. 96
9. 20
10. 47
11. 02
12. 2
13. 27
14. 82
15. 80
16. 1
17. 99
18. 07
19. 98
20. 50
21. 58
22. 77
23. 59
24. 69
25. 43
26. 49
27. 11
28. 79
29. 60
30. 29
31. 57
32. 53
33. 45
34. 41
35. 30
36. 90
37. 24
38. 78
39. 72
40. 70
41. 46
42. 06
Chasers with problems: 06 (blown tire), 78 (engine), 69 (engine), 77 (crash damage)

Darlington (Round 34)
One off drivers participated, however it was limited to 800 racers and new recruits (me & Jeff's next crew)
Non Charter and One Off Top 6: 41, 52, 725 (Louise Johnson), 82, 199 (Jimhi Navare), 801 (Antevia Kingrey)
Results: McFarland wins after PH Williams falls off late, Louise Johnson makes impressive comeback in third in first start since Season 6 crash
1. 05
2. 60
3. 725 Louise Johnson
4. 10
5. 52
6. 45
7. 43
8. 11
9. 50
10. 49
11. 77
12. 40
13. 3
14. 90
15. 79
16. 65
17. 29
18. 96
19. 27
20. 801 Antevia Kingrey
21. 58
22. 07
23. 02
24. 24
25. 38
26. 82
27. 78
28. 1
29. 34
30. 30
31. 53
32. 2
33. 47
34. 199 Jimhi Navare
35. 70
36. 20
37. 57
38. 69
39. 80
40. 41
41. 06
42. 46
Chasers with problems: all of them lol (06 crash lap 41, 69 engine lap 125, 34 crash lap 187, 78 engine lap 308, 38 crash damage)
Chase Standings:
1. 34 (advanced)
2. 96 26
3. 38 27
4. 27 32
5. 77 33
6. 69 62
7. 78 65
8. 06 83 (must win)

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Chase Analysis S9 Empty Re: Chase Analysis S9

Post by nhood53 on November 15th 2018, 8:44 pm

Round 35 (Final Eliminations!)
Top 6 Non Charter: 0,37,51,91,23,52
Race: Scott Roush advances to the Round of 4 with dominant Vegas win.
1. 77
2. 49
3. 65
4. 70
5. 3
6. 07
7. 43
8. 53
9. 40
10. 52
11. 29
12. 37
13. 23
14. 34
15. 38
16. 69
17. 02
18, 47
19, 45
20. 27
21. 79
22. 06
23. 78
24. 96
25. 10
26. 05
27. 46
28. 60
29. 50
30. 11
31. 24
32. 0
33. 58
34. 1
35. 57
36. 90
37. 91
38. 2
39. 80
40: 51
41. 20
42. 30
Chase Results:
1. 34 (advanced)
2. 77 (advanced)
3. 38 42
4. 96 50
5. 27 52 (eliminated)
6. 69 78 (eliminated)
7. 78 88 (eliminated)
8. 06 105 (eliminated)

Championship 4 will be Tommy Roberts, Kevin Anderson, Scott Roush, and Benoit Lothaire-Irvine. No one knows what to expect from this group fighting for the title and (hint hint) there might even be some CRAZY team orders going on!

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Chase Analysis S9 Empty Re: Chase Analysis S9

Post by nhood53 on November 19th 2018, 8:38 pm

CTRS Championship at Sonoma
Non Charter Top 6: 14,72,59,32,23,98
Highly expecting Deb to win.
Lap 1: Rehall on pole but Jake Moss to the lead in 2. Roberts leading the title race.
Lap 4: Caution: Vince Fteeze and Lance Vernio spin.
Lap 6: Anderson has taken the championship lead as Benoit Lothaire had a moment with Zachary Fitzwater into 11.
Lap 8: Ike Gonzalez to the lead.
Lap 9: Caution: Kevin Anderson dumps Dumindu in 3a meanwhile L. Stucole bumps into Roberts and flips over. Miss leads, Anderson continues to lead the title race.
Lap 11: Gonzalez holds the lead through pit stops.
Lap 15: Deb is in 36th after winning the last 2 Sonoma races, Rob Mooney has spun in Turn 7.
Lap 16: Championship contender Scott Roush spun out in Turn 7 after getting a bit loose
Lap 18: Jake Moss back out front.
Lap 21: Caution: Fatal damage to Deb after SO Garrison got loose in Turn 9. Moss leads, Anderson in front of the title race
Lap 24: On the restart Benoit Lothaire gets taken out of the race as a result of contact with rival Zachary Fitzwater (Fitzwater retires as a result, FAR gets their charter taken away), caution out
Lap 26: Vince Freeze takes the lead on a contrarian strategy after his spin earlier.
Lap 27: Caution out after Anderson, Lethinen, Satska, and Stucole collide
Lap 29: Vince Freeze continues to lead on his contrarian strategy.
Lap 30: DePlatt takes the lead as Freeze begins to feel the effects of his worn tired.
Lap 31: Big wreck in Turn 7 after Eli Bright dives into turn 7 and takes out Jon, also involved is championship contender Scott Roush.
Lap 33: Roman Rehall takes the lead, Anderson still in control of the title.
Lap 40: Caution: Heather Stucole loses control in turn 7.
Lap 41: Rob Mooney the new leader, remember he spun earlier as well
Lap 43: Carl Dawson to the lead
Lap 46; Tripontakio Vernio to the lead
Lap 54: Dawson back out front, Anderson has a problem on pit road giving Roberts the championship lead.
Lap 60: Roush now the championship leader, Vernio the race leader
Lap 63: Freeze to the lead
Lap 64: Jake Moss to the lead
Lap 65: Roush out front, first lap led by a championship contender
Lap 66: Carl Dawson back out front as Roberts has 15 seconds on Roush for the title
Lap 76: Scott Roush back in front of the championship, a fight for 27th
Lap 79: Vince Freeze to the lead
Lap 80: Caution: Tagahari Nawasaki gets into Aidan Shepherd, that team is getting penalized and Tagahari is going to DDS.
Lap 81: Carl Dawson to the lead, Roberts in control of the title in 16th
Lap 83: Roush gets held up behind Satska and Merrick, allowing Roberts to pull away
Lap 88: Millers to the garage
Lap 89: Mooney takes the lead
Lap 92: Provisional champion Roberts up to 15th
Lap 95: Debris caution, Roberts takes the lead.
Lap 98: Lethinen to the lead, he hopes he can win his first race in his last start
Lap 99: Roberts dumps the farewell driver Lethinen, almost surrendering his title to Roush and giving Hunter the lead from fourth!
Lap 112: Hunter wins at Sonoma after holding off Rob Mooney, Roberts holds on to the title by finishing third.
Post-race: It is announced that Anderson and Roberts will receive penalties after their alleged conspiracy to take the championship. Fitzwater will also be penalized as a result of the Benoit incident. Roberts said he was intentionally holding Roush up by spinning Roush's friend and former teammate Lethinen.

Results:
1. 50
2. 24
3. 38
4. 69
5. 47
6. 60
7. 65
8. 98
9. 70
10. 05
11. 90
12. 49
13. 11
14. 45
15. 30
16. 72
17 77
18. 80
19. 58
20. 20
21. 43
22. 23
23. 2
24. 40
25. 27
26. 14
27. 02
28. 46
29. 34
30. 79
31. 3
32. 29
33. 53
34. 10
35. 57
36. 06
37. 59
38. 32
39. 07
40. 96
41. 1
42. 78
Champion: Tommy Roberts
Non Charter Champion: E Frazier R
Non Chase Champion: B Moss R (awarded Provisional Champions Trophy if Roberts' championship is repealed)
There will be NO Chase in Season X because of the WestFall/FAR conspiracy

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